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| By Martin Weiss |
Are black swan events predictable? If so, how can you prepare?
When Russia surrounded Ukraine with over 150,000 soldiers this month, world leaders were caught flat-footed.
When Russia mounted a massive attack on Ukraine this week, bombing their cities and making a beeline for Kiev to overthrow their government, world leaders were surprised again.
And when the next hammer blow hits, the shock will reverberate around the globe still another time.
Strange? Not really.
Throughout history, people have believed what they want to believe.
They’re rarely prepared for shocking events, even when those events are widely expected.
To better see what might be coming, you have to rise above the fray of day-to-day events.
You have to set aside preconceived notions.
You have to connect the dots based on a broader vision of history and cycles.
That’s what we have sought to do ever since I founded this research and ratings company more than 50 years ago.
We cannot always hit the mark. Sometimes, we are also caught off guard by supposedly “unpredictable” black swan events.
But the question bears repeating: Are they truly unpredictable?
Consider the Al Qaeda attack on the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001.
Eight years earlier, soon after the World Trade Center bombing of 1993, our good friend Marty Edelston, founder of Boardroom Reports, warned everyone in his company that the next attack would be the big one.
He was so certain that he moved their offices to Connecticut.
Or what about the Lehman Brothers failure on Sept. 15, 2008, which nearly triggered a total meltdown in the global financial system?
No one saw that coming, or so they say.
However, Weiss Ratings publicly named Lehman as a candidate for failure 182 days before it went under.
What about wars?
Here’s what we’ve written about them in recent years …
Weiss Ratings Senior Analyst Sean Brodrick saw it coming. Starting in 2017 and nearly every year since, Sean has issued stark warnings like this one:
“We are witnessing a major alignment of the most powerful forces known to man — same kind of convergence that preceded some of the most disruptive upheavals of modern history. We have:
“A major new cycle of rampant inflation that’s just beginning to rear its ugly head as costs for construction materials, housing, food and energy already begin to surge.
“The rapidly rising cycle of monetary excesses — unprecedented money printing by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), plus …
“The escalating cycle of war, including the New Cold War, cyber wars, trade wars, currency wars, civil wars, regional wars and more. These conflicts are aggravating the inflation and debt cycles.”
Going back further, to Nov. 21, 2016, I wrote:
“Russia is on a long march to war. It is the first major nation in modern history to invade and annex the territory of another nation, directly threatening the world order that prevailed since the end of World War II.
“It has the most pervasive anti-American propaganda machine I’ve ever studied or experienced.
“It’s rapidly upgrading its firepower in the Baltic Sea and adding warships armed with long-range cruise missiles.
“And in the event of a conflict, it could defeat NATO forces in the Baltic countries within 60 hours or less, according to the RAND Corporation.”
Three years before he passed away, it was veteran Weiss Ratings Analyst Larry Edelson who issued the first warning of these dangers.
On June 23, 2014, Larry wrote:
“I have warned you repeatedly of the ramping up of the war cycles. Cycles that govern human social interaction on a grand scale, cycles that can be quantified and used to forecast periods of peace and war, periods of civil unrest and international conflict.
“And those cycles are ramping up in the worst possible combination of forces not seen since the late 1800s.
“These are the cycles that are responsible for all that you are now seeing [especially] Russia versus Ukraine and other former Soviet satellites.’
But Larry did not suddenly wake up to the rising cycle of war only AFTER Russia’s first incursion into Ukraine.
On March 25, 2013, long before that event, he warned:
“The seeds of war have been sown. Keep in mind that Russia largely controls the European energy sector. The European Union depends on Russia for more than 32 percent of its crude oil, and nearly 39 percent of its natural gas needs.
“Germany depends upon Russia for as much as 36 percent of its energy needs.
“If Putin feels Russian financial losses in Europe are unjust, I don’t doubt for one minute that he would threaten to retaliate by ‘turning the lights out’ in Europe.
“Sadly, based on my work on the war cycles, war and massive civil unrest in many parts of the world are a very real threat.”
Clearly, black swan events are not always as unpredictable as they’re made out to be.
But the bigger, more urgent, questions are:
What might be the NEXT black swan?
How can you protect your hard-earned savings or wealth?
And what can you do to turn the tides of history in your favor — for yourself, your family and your legacy?
Veteran Wall Street trader and financial news anchor, Kenny Polcari, has just interviewed us for the answers.
Be sure to watch it now.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
